Data timestamp: Asian trading hours on August 7, 2026. Energy futures trade continuously, and the figures below represent a market snapshot.
International oil prices extended their overnight rebound on August 7. Brent climbed above $83 per barrel, while WTI returned to approximately $78. The market repriced supply risks associated with the US-Iran conflict and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, while also assessing rising US crude inventories, falling refined-product stocks and higher OPEC+ production quotas.
Market Overview
| Energy Contract | Current Price | Daily Change | Daily Range | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude, October 2026 | About $83.38/bbl | +1.08% | $83.00-$83.85 | $82.49 |
| WTI crude, September 2026 | About $78.05/bbl | +0.98% | $77.75-$78.42 | $77.29 |
| RBOB gasoline, September 2026 | About $2.9435/gal | -0.42% | $2.9344-$2.9563 | $2.9559 |
| Heating oil, September 2026 | About $3.9319/gal | -0.01% | $3.9050-$3.9321 | $3.9323 |
| US natural gas, September 2026 | About $2.627/MMBtu | -0.23% | $2.617-$2.633 | $2.633 |
Market sources: WTI, Brent, RBOB gasoline, heating oil and natural gas.
Global Market Background
1. Strait of Hormuz Risks Return to the Forefront
The US-Iran conflict and uncertainty surrounding Gulf shipping remain the most important short-term oil-market drivers. Iran has indicated that an agreement on reopening the Strait of Hormuz may be close, but negotiations have repeatedly stalled and commercial traffic has not fully returned to normal.
Before the conflict, roughly one-fifth of globally traded oil and natural gas passed through the strait. Any tanker attack, transit restriction or collapse in negotiations could therefore push the supply-risk premium sharply higher. Latest AP market report
2. US Crude Stocks Rise While Product Inventories Fall
EIA data for the week ended July 31 showed:
- Commercial crude inventories increased by 2.479 million barrels to 406.987 million
- Cushing crude stocks rose by 2.356 million barrels to 20.955 million
- Gasoline inventories fell by 1.643 million barrels to 209.658 million
- Distillate inventories declined by 3.473 million barrels to 107.159 million
- Strategic Petroleum Reserve stocks fell by 2.841 million barrels
The crude build is a negative factor for WTI, but falling gasoline and distillate inventories indicate that refined-product supplies remain relatively tight. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
3. OPEC+ Gradually Restores Supply
Seven core OPEC+ participants agreed to raise their combined August production quota by 188,000 barrels per day. The participating countries are Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman.
OPEC+ retained the flexibility to pause or reverse the adjustment. With Gulf exports still disrupted, however, a higher production quota may not immediately translate into additional physical exports. Official OPEC statement
Subsequent reports indicate that the group also approved an additional quota increase of approximately 188,000 barrels per day for September. Markets will now watch whether OPEC+ pauses further increases during the fourth quarter.
4. US Employment Data Could Affect the Dollar and Demand Outlook
The US July employment report is scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. ET on August 7. Strong employment and wage data could lift the dollar and Treasury yields, creating pressure on dollar-denominated oil. Weak data could increase concerns about slower economic growth and lower fuel demand.
Oil may therefore face pressure from either a stronger dollar or weaker demand expectations, depending on the report's composition. US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Sector Performance
Brent Crude: Stronger Supply-Risk Premium
Brent moved back above $83 and maintained a premium of approximately $5 over WTI, reflecting greater supply risks in the internationally traded seaborne market.
- Reference support: $82.50 and $80.00
- Reference resistance: $84.00 and $86.00
WTI Crude: Inventory Build Limits Upside
WTI recovered toward $78, but rising commercial and Cushing inventories limited buying momentum. A break above $79 could open the way toward the $80-$82 region.
- Reference support: $77.00 and $75.00
- Reference resistance: $79.00 and $82.00
Gasoline and Distillates: Falling Stocks Provide Support
US gasoline and distillate inventories both declined. Distillate stocks were approximately 5.1% below the same period a year earlier. Refinery disruptions, transportation risks or seasonal demand could therefore keep diesel and heating-oil prices stronger than crude.
Natural Gas: A Relatively Independent Market
US natural gas traded near $2.63/MMBtu and underperformed crude oil. Natural-gas prices remain primarily driven by weather, power demand, LNG exports and domestic storage rather than Middle East crude-supply risks.
Assets to Watch
| Asset or Company | Code | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| WTI crude futures | CL | US inventory and Cushing supply indicator |
| Brent crude futures | BZ/LCO | Global supply and Hormuz-risk benchmark |
| Energy Select Sector SPDR | XLE | Exposure to large US energy companies |
| United States Oil Fund | USO | WTI futures-related ETF |
| Exxon Mobil | XOM | Integrated upstream and refining exposure |
| Chevron | CVX | Sensitive to crude prices and production |
| Shell | SHEL | LNG, refining and international oil exposure |
| SLB | SLB | Oilfield services and capital-spending cycle |
Market Drivers
- US-Iran negotiations and Strait of Hormuz shipping conditions
- US crude, Cushing, gasoline and distillate inventories
- The difference between OPEC+ quotas and actual production
- US employment, inflation, the dollar and Treasury yields
- Crude demand from China and other major Asian importers
- Refinery utilisation, product crack spreads and shipping costs
Outlook
Oil prices are likely to remain highly volatile and headline-driven in the near term.
If Strait of Hormuz traffic is disrupted further or the US-Iran conflict escalates, Brent could test the $86-$90 region, while WTI could approach $82-$85. If negotiations progress, shipping conditions improve and US inventories continue rising, Brent could retest $80, with WTI returning toward $75-$77.
Geopolitical supply risks currently provide upside support, while OPEC+ supply increases, rising US crude stocks and slower global economic growth represent medium-term headwinds.
For market observation only; not investment advice.