International oil prices rebounded modestly during Friday's Asian session after a notable decline in the previous session. WTI crude futures recovered to around $81.66 per barrel, while Brent rose to approximately $87.47. A slightly weaker U.S. dollar offered some support to dollar-denominated commodities, but the market continued to absorb a 17.4-million-barrel weekly increase in U.S. commercial crude stocks and improving oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
The market currently has a pronounced two-layer structure: the shortage of crude oil has eased, while gasoline, diesel and other middle-distillate inventories remain tight. Risks to Russian and Middle Eastern refining infrastructure are also maintaining a higher premium in refined products than in crude itself.
Data note: The figures below are delayed intraday futures indications at approximately 1:36–1:38 p.m. Malaysia/China time (05:36–05:38 UTC) on August 14, 2026, and are not official settlement prices. Changes are calculated from the August 14 contract-session open. Gasoline and heating-oil series may be affected by contract rolls, so cross-day price gaps should not be interpreted entirely as spot-market moves.
Market Overview
| Indicator | Intraday Level | Session Change | Intraday Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude futures | Around $81.66/bbl | +0.48% | $80.71–$81.75 |
| Brent crude futures | Around $87.47/bbl | +0.68% | $86.44–$87.47 |
| Brent-WTI spread | Around $5.81/bbl | Wider by about $0.20 | Reflects seaborne and regional supply differences |
| RBOB gasoline futures | Around $2.8575/gal | +0.28% | $2.8425–$2.8610 |
| Heating-oil futures | Around $4.1197/gal | -0.02% | $4.0989–$4.1274 |
| Natural-gas futures | Around $2.748/MMBtu | +0.44% | $2.730–$2.751 |
| U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) | Around 99.85 | -0.07% | 99.85–99.94 |
WTI's indicative 52-week range was approximately $54.98–$119.48, while Brent's was about $58.72–$126.10. Prices are far below their conflict-driven highs but remain above lower pre-war levels, indicating that the geopolitical premium has not disappeared entirely.
Quote references: WTI, Brent, RBOB gasoline, heating oil, natural gas and the Dollar Index.
Global Supply, Demand and Macro Context
1. Hormuz Flows Have Improved but Are Not Fully Normalised
The International Energy Agency estimates that roughly 20 million barrels per day of crude and products transited the Strait of Hormuz in 2025, equal to about one-quarter of global seaborne oil trade. Around 80% was destined for Asia, while practical bypass capacity was only about 3.5–5.5 mb/d. IEA Strait of Hormuz factsheet.
The Associated Press reported on August 11 that the U.S. Energy Secretary said nearly 9 mb/d was moving through the Strait and that total regional oil flows, including pipelines, were around 15 mb/d. Associated Press. This represents a material recovery, but flows remain below the roughly 20 mb/d pre-conflict transit baseline.
The extreme scarcity premium has therefore declined but cannot fully disappear. A breakdown in negotiations, tanker attack or damage to export infrastructure could quickly lift Brent and widen its premium over WTI.
2. U.S. Commercial Crude Stocks Surge, Partly Because Imports Jumped
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that commercial crude inventories rose by 17.422 million barrels to 424.410 million barrels in the week ended August 7—the week's most important bearish data point. Cushing stocks increased by 1.611 million barrels to 22.566 million, while total commercial petroleum inventories rose by 15.738 million barrels. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report; EIA stocks table.
The build does not necessarily mean end-demand collapsed. U.S. crude imports averaged 7.3 mb/d, up 1.14 mb/d from the previous week, while refinery inputs remained high at 17.2 mb/d and utilisation reached 96.2%. The import surge explains a significant part of the stock increase, while refinery operations remained strong. EIA weekly summary.
3. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Draw Reduces Future Policy Cushion
The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell by 6.115 million barrels to 298.694 million. Consequently, total crude stocks including the SPR increased by 11.307 million barrels—less than the 17.422-million-barrel commercial build.
SPR releases help absorb a short-term shock, but they also reduce the readily available policy buffer should Hormuz flows deteriorate again. The market therefore needs to consider the composition of the inventory change, not just the commercial headline.
4. Crude Inventories Rise While Refined-Product Markets Stay Tight
U.S. gasoline stocks fell by about 0.97 million barrels to 208.690 million and were 6% below the five-year seasonal average. Distillate stocks were nearly unchanged at 107.149 million but remained about 12% below the five-year average. Over the latest four weeks, gasoline product supplied was down 0.5% year over year, while distillate demand was up 1.9% and jet-fuel product supplied rose 3.8%.
This helps explain why bearish crude-stock data did not eliminate strength in product cracks. The IEA's July report likewise found that improving crude flows had made crude more available, while incomplete Middle Eastern refinery restarts and attacks on Russian refineries kept gasoline and diesel markets tight. IEA July Oil Market Report.
5. EIA Forecasts Third-Quarter Brent Near $85
In its August 11 Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA assumed severe constraints on Hormuz transit would persist through August and forecast Brent spot prices to average around $85 per barrel in Q3 2026. As regional production recovers and inventories rebuild, the agency expects Brent to average $69 in 2027. EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook.
The EIA also expects U.S. commercial crude stocks to remain below the 2021–2025 five-year low through the end of 2026 and forecasts U.S. crude production at 13.8 mb/d this year. That combination supports prices in the short run but limits the medium-term upside through expected U.S. supply growth and inventory rebuilding.
6. OPEC and IEA Still Disagree Sharply on 2026 Demand
OPEC reduced its 2026 global oil-demand growth forecast to 0.78 mb/d, implying total demand of about 105.94 mb/d. In contrast, the IEA's July report projected that global demand would decline by 1.0 mb/d in 2026 before rebounding by 2.0 mb/d in 2027. Coverage of OPEC's July report; IEA July report.
One institution forecasts growth while the other forecasts contraction. The gap highlights exceptional uncertainty around fuel prices, the duration of the conflict, Asian activity and the release of pent-up travel demand. It is itself a source of volatility and argues against treating any single forecast as a settled outcome.
7. OPEC+ Adds Supply Modestly While Retaining Flexibility
Seven OPEC+ participants agreed to restore 188,000 barrels per day of voluntary production adjustments in August, while retaining the option to pause or reverse the increase as market conditions evolve. Official OPEC statement.
The increment creates modest supply pressure but is small relative to the multi-million-barrel disruption in Gulf flows. The larger market question is whether OPEC+ continues raising targets and whether members can meet those targets while delivering promised compensation cuts.
8. Russian Refinery Strikes Reinforce Product-Supply Risk
The Associated Press reported on August 13 that Ukrainian drones struck the Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat refining and petrochemical complex in Bashkortostan, the fourth reported Russian refinery strike in three days. Associated Press.
Refinery damage usually affects diesel, gasoline and export-product availability more directly than global crude supply. These events may therefore support heating oil, diesel cracks and refining margins more strongly than crude prices alone.
Contract Highlights and Analysis
WTI Crude: Initial Support Forms Near $80
WTI recovered from an Asian-session low of $80.71 to around $81.66. The large U.S. commercial-stock build capped the rebound, while a softer dollar, lower SPR stocks and global transport risks provided support. The $80 area is an important psychological zone. A break below it could reopen the August 10 low near $77.80; a recovery above $83.30 could expose $84.35–$84.60.
Brent Crude: Geopolitical Risk Sustains Its Premium Over WTI
Brent rose to approximately $87.47, leaving the Brent-WTI spread near $5.81. Because Brent more directly reflects European, Asian and seaborne crude risk, changes involving Hormuz, the Red Sea and Russian exports tend to generate a larger premium over the U.S.-focused WTI benchmark.
Gasoline and Distillates: Low Stocks Offset Better Crude Availability
U.S. refinery utilisation is already high, limiting the scope for an immediate additional surge in product output. Gasoline stocks are 6% below their five-year average and distillates 12% below, meaning refined-product prices and cracks may remain firm even if crude consolidates. Contract rolls can distort futures charts, so spot differentials, refinery operations and inventories should be monitored alongside continuous contracts.
Natural Gas: Related Geopolitical Risk, Different Fundamentals
U.S. natural-gas futures traded near $2.748/MMBtu. Hormuz also matters for Qatari and Emirati LNG exports, but U.S. gas remains driven mainly by domestic production, weather, inventories and LNG-terminal maintenance. The EIA forecasts a Q3 Henry Hub average near $2.87, suggesting a weaker near-term price structure than the geopolitical case for crude oil.
Markets and Companies to Watch
| Asset / Company | Ticker | Reason to Watch |
|---|---|---|
| WTI crude | CL=F | U.S. stocks, Cushing inventories, dollar and U.S. exports |
| Brent crude | BZ=F | Hormuz, shipping risk and the global physical market |
| Exxon Mobil | XOM | U.S. upstream output, refining margins and oil-price sensitivity |
| Chevron | CVX | Upstream cash flow, international supply and project execution |
| Shell | SHEL | LNG, global refining and Brent exposure |
| Saudi Aramco | 2222.SR | Saudi production, Red Sea bypass routes and infrastructure security |
| PETRONAS Chemicals | 5183.KL | Feedstock costs, petrochemical margins and Asian demand |
| Dialog Group | 7277.KL | Storage activity, refining investment and regional oil trade |
Market Drivers
- Actual tanker flows through Hormuz and U.S.–Iran negotiations
- U.S. commercial crude stocks, SPR releases and crude imports
- Gasoline, diesel and jet-fuel stocks and refining cracks
- OPEC+ production, compliance and the next policy decision
- Security of Russian and Middle Eastern refining infrastructure
- Global demand, Asian activity and air travel
- The U.S. dollar and U.S. interest-rate expectations
Short-Term Outlook
| Indicator | Reference Support | Reference Resistance |
|---|---|---|
| WTI crude | $80.70 / $80.00 | $81.75 / $83.30 |
| WTI extension levels | $77.80 | $84.35 / $84.60 |
| Brent crude | $86.40 / $85.90 | $87.50 / $89.00 |
| Brent extension levels | $83.30 | $90.00 |
| Brent-WTI spread | $5.50 | $6.00 / $6.50 |
| RBOB gasoline | $2.84 / $2.80 | $2.86 / $2.90 |
Without a new major supply disruption, WTI may consolidate mainly between $80 and $84.50, while Brent may trade around $86–$90. The U.S. inventory surge and improving transport flows cap the upside; incomplete normalisation of Hormuz, lower strategic reserves and tight product stocks limit the downside.
If Hormuz transit continues to improve, Brent may face more pressure than WTI and the spread could narrow. If the Strait or refining infrastructure is attacked again, Brent and refined products would likely reprice the geopolitical premium first.
The support and resistance zones are observational references based on intraday ranges, recent highs and lows, and round-number psychology. They are not official price targets.