As of approximately 5:05 a.m. US Eastern Time, or 5:05 p.m. Beijing time, crude oil prices were modestly lower following three consecutive sessions of gains.
WTI remained near $79 a barrel, while Brent traded between $84 and $85. Middle East tensions and shipping risks around the Strait of Hormuz continued to support a geopolitical premium. However, higher US product inventories, planned OPEC+ supply increases and an uncertain global demand outlook limited further gains.
The prices below refer to the August 2026 WTI contract and September 2026 Brent contract.
Market Overview
| Market Indicator | Latest Reading | Intraday Performance |
|---|---|---|
| WTI crude futures | $79.15/barrel | -$0.45, or -0.57% |
| Previous WTI settlement | $79.60/barrel | July 15 settlement |
| WTI intraday range | $79.11-$80.57 | Approximately $1.46 range |
| Brent crude futures | $84.69/barrel | -$0.26, or -0.31% |
| Previous Brent settlement | $84.95/barrel | July 15 settlement |
| Brent intraday range | $84.24-$85.65 | Approximately $1.41 range |
| Brent-WTI spread | Approximately $5.54 | Brent remains at a premium |
The continuous WTI contract gained approximately 10.6% over five trading days and 5.2% over one month, reflecting the renewed geopolitical risk premium.
Global and Regional Context
Strait of Hormuz Risks
The escalation in the US-Iran conflict has increased risks to military and commercial shipping around the Strait of Hormuz. Before the outbreak of the war, approximately one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments passed through the waterway.
Gulf exports reportedly recovered to more than 80% of pre-war levels following the June agreement but fell below 50%, or approximately 11 million barrels per day, during the latest week.
US Crude Inventories Decline Less Than Expected
US commercial crude inventories fell by approximately 1.7 million barrels during the week ending July 10, smaller than the expected 2.6-million-barrel decline.
Distillate inventories increased by 4.6 million barrels, significantly above the expected increase of approximately 100,000 barrels. The crude draw provided some price support, but the product build suggested that downstream demand was not strengthening at the same pace.
OPEC+ Plans an August Supply Increase
Seven OPEC+ producers agreed to adjust production by 188,000 barrels per day beginning in August 2026. The participating countries retained the flexibility to pause or reverse the supply adjustment if market conditions deteriorate.
The increase limits upside potential, although actual export disruptions from the Middle East could be significantly larger than the planned OPEC+ addition.
Oil Re-enters the Inflation Debate
Higher crude prices can raise transportation, aviation, chemical and manufacturing costs. A sustained oil-price increase could revive global inflation concerns, reduce the scope for central-bank easing and pressure both bond and equity valuations.
Industry and Market Highlights
WTI Crude
WTI experienced profit-taking above $80 but continued to find initial support near $79. The August contract traded above later-dated contracts, including the December contract near $75.80, indicating that immediate supply concerns exceed longer-term expectations.
Brent Crude
Brent maintained a premium of approximately $5.50 over WTI. The wider premium reflects the greater exposure of internationally traded crude to Middle East shipping and export risks.
Refining and Petroleum Products
The large increase in US distillate inventories may pressure diesel and heating-oil refining margins. Refiners may benefit from elevated product prices, although higher feedstock costs and slower consumption could reduce profitability.
Tankers and Shipping
Shipping disruptions may increase insurance premiums, tanker rates and rerouting costs. Tanker operators can benefit from higher freight rates but also face significant security and scheduling risks.
Energy Companies
Upstream producers generally benefit from higher oil prices. Integrated energy companies are additionally affected by refining margins, natural-gas prices, capital spending and shareholder-return policies.
Oil and Energy Assets to Watch
| Asset | Symbol | Reason to Watch |
|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude Futures | CL | Main US crude benchmark |
| Brent Crude Futures | BZ / LCO | Main international benchmark |
| United States Oil Fund | USO | WTI futures exposure |
| United States Brent Oil Fund | BNO | Brent futures exposure |
| Energy Select Sector SPDR | XLE | Large US energy-stock basket |
| Exxon Mobil | XOM | Integrated energy leader |
| Chevron | CVX | Large dividend-oriented producer |
| ConocoPhillips | COP | Upstream oil-price exposure |
| Occidental Petroleum | OXY | US shale and oil-price leverage |
| SLB | SLB | Global oilfield-services leader |
For observation only; this report does not constitute investment advice.
Outlook
The immediate reference range is approximately $78-$82 for WTI and $83-$87 for Brent.
Initial WTI support is near $79, followed by the $77-$78 area. Resistance is located near $80.60 and $82. Brent support is near $84, while resistance is around $85.65-$87.
A further disruption to Hormuz shipping or another decline in Gulf exports could push WTI above $82 and Brent toward $87-$90. De-escalation, recovering shipping activity and successful implementation of the OPEC+ increase could send WTI back toward $76-$78 and Brent toward $80-$83.