On Thursday (April 9), the global gold market rebounded strongly after a week of range-bound trading. Driven by an unexpected rise in US initial jobless claims and the potential collapse of a "fragile ceasefire" in the Middle East, international spot gold prices briefly touched $4,801/oz before settling near $4,765/oz, a daily gain of approximately 1%. Market skepticism regarding the durability of the "Trump-brokered" peace deals has once again pushed safe-haven buying to the forefront.
Market Overview
Global & Macro Background
US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending April 4 rose to 219,000, exceeding the forecast of 212,000, signaling a cooling labor market following successive interest rate hikes. Simultaneously, geopolitical risks spiked as large-scale Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon caused significant casualties, directly threatening the existing truce. Furthermore, Iran's continued control over the Strait of Hormuz has led to persistent global energy supply disruptions, with high oil prices fueling expectations of secondary inflation.
Local and International Performance
- Spot Gold: London spot gold closed near $4,765/oz, up roughly $45 from the previous day.
- Gold Futures: COMEX June gold main contracts settled at $4,818/oz.
- Domestic Prices (China): Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) spot gold rose 3.1% to close at 1,059.91 CNY/g, a key milestone reclaiming the 1,000 CNY level after the March correction.
Industry Highlights
"Energy Premium" from the Strait of Hormuz
With vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remaining well below pre-war levels, global shipments of oil and LNG are severely bottlenecked. US WTI crude briefly touched $102.70/barrel. This surge in energy costs not only boosts inflation expectations but also reinforces gold's status as a hard currency against declining purchasing power.
Institutional Sentiment: UBS Bullish
UBS released a report today viewing the recent dip in gold prices as a "buying opportunity," maintaining its forecast for gold to average $5,000/oz in 2026. Despite short-term selling pressure, the structural logic of central bank accumulation amid weakened dollar credibility remains unchanged.
Key Data to Watch (For Market Observation Only — Not Investment Advice)
| Indicator/Contract | Code/Type | Key Data | Reason for Observation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spot Gold | XAU/USD | ~$4765/oz | Broke above $4,700 resistance; technicals returning to a bullish trend. |
| Chow Tai Fook Gold | Retail Quote | 1386 CNY/g | Jewelry prices remain elevated, driven by the rebound in spot prices. |
| SGE Gold | SHAUPM | 1059.91 CNY/g | Daily gain of over 3%; reflects strong domestic demand. |
Market Drivers
- Geopolitical Fissures: Escalating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has made ceasefire agreements seem nominal, boosting safe-haven sentiment.
- Weakening Dollar: The US Dollar Index (DXY) closed near 98.81, down 0.22%, providing momentum for non-USD denominated gold prices.
- Cooling Labor Market: Higher-than-expected jobless claims strengthened expectations for a future dovish shift in Fed monetary policy.
Outlook
Analysts believe gold has successfully digested the profit-taking pressure from March. In the short term, the market will focus on Friday's CPI inflation data. If geopolitical tensions further escalate or the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz intensifies, gold could once again challenge its all-time high of $4,856/oz.