On Monday (December 15), the global gold market continued its ascent following a strong rebound last Friday. International spot gold firmly held above the $4,300 mark, reflecting intense market expectations for further Federal Reserve rate cuts. Despite being in a historic high-price territory, the combination of seasonal physical demand and persistent global geopolitical volatility ensured gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset remained undiminished at the end of 2025.
Market Overview
Global & Macro Background
The Federal Reserve recently lowered the federal funds rate to a range of 3.5% - 3.75% and announced a quantitative easing plan involving monthly purchases of $40 billion in Treasury bills. This dovish pivot has significantly pressured Treasury yields. Meanwhile, disappointing US economic data released today shifted investor focus to Tuesday's Non-Farm Payrolls report, with sentiment leaning toward gold as a hedge against downside economic risks.
Local and International Performance
- Spot Gold: London spot gold fluctuated upward, hitting an intraday high near $4,351/oz and settling around $4,302/oz.
- Domestic Retail Gold (China): Retail prices surged, with major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang breaking the 1,350 CNY/g barrier. Laomiao Gold led the market with a quote of 1,352 CNY/g.
- Futures & Exchanges: Shanghai Gold Exchange spot gold rallied 1.25% today to close at 964.25 CNY/g, indicating extremely robust domestic investment appetite.
Industry Highlights
Retail Gold Prices Hit Record Highs
Due to the pass-through effect of international prices and strong domestic support, retail gold prices across major Chinese jewelry stores rose on December 15. Brands like Chow Tai Fook and Chao Hong Ji saw significant single-day jumps, reflecting a seasonal surge in demand for weddings and New Year-themed gold bars.
Continued Inflows into Chinese Gold ETFs
According to World Gold Council data, Chinese gold ETFs have recorded net inflows for four consecutive months. The strong performance throughout 2025 has seen AUM skyrocket, reflecting domestic investors' preference for gold as a core safe-haven asset amid currency fluctuations and declining deposit rates.
Key Data to Watch (For Market Observation Only — Not Investment Advice)
| Indicator/Contract | Code/Type | Key Data | Reason for Observation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spot Gold | XAU/USD | ~$4302/oz | Reclaimed the $4,300 level; next resistance at $4,353. |
| Chow Tai Fook Gold | Retail Price | 1353 CNY/g | Historic high for the brand; reflects exuberant retail sentiment. |
| SGE Gold | SHAUPM | 964.25 CNY/g | Up 1.25% in a single day; premiums remain elevated. |
Market Drivers
- Monetary Policy Easing: The Fed's rate cuts combined with bond purchases have drastically reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold.
- Seasonal Demand: Mid-December marks the start of the peak physical gold consumption season in Asia, particularly China.
- Rising Safe-Haven Sentiment: Concerns over US fiscal policy and potential labor market weakness have pushed capital from risk assets into gold.
Outlook
Analysts note that gold maintains a bullish technical bias after breaking $4,300. Short-term volatility will be dictated by Tuesday's US labor data. A weak report could see gold challenge the all-time high of $4,382; conversely, a surprisingly strong report would test support levels near $4,245.