Gold steadied modestly during Friday's Asian session following the previous day's pullback. COMEX December 2026 gold futures traded near $4,373.50 an ounce, approximately 0.23% above the August 13 close but still below the August 14 opening level of $4,408.20. The move showed buying interest near the session low, although momentum buyers had not fully returned.
Gold had reached approximately $4,465 on August 12, its highest level in more than two months, before profit-taking emerged. The US Dollar Index eased to around 99.86, while 10-year nominal and real Treasury yields declined to approximately 4.63% and 2.39%, respectively, supporting the non-yielding metal. Silver, gold ETFs and mining equities were weaker, however, indicating continued caution within the broader precious-metals complex.
Attention turns to July US retail sales and the University of Michigan consumer-sentiment survey and inflation expectations on August 14. The data could move gold through the dollar, real yields and expectations for Federal Reserve policy.
Data note: The August 14 US trading session was not complete when this report was prepared. Gold and silver figures are delayed COMEX intraday indications available during the Asian session, not official US settlement prices. Gold ETFs and mining shares use official August 13 US cash-market closes.
Market Overview
| Indicator | Reference Level | Change or Status |
|---|---|---|
| COMEX December 2026 gold futures | Around $4,373.50/oz | Approximately +0.23% from the August 13 close |
| August 14 gold-futures range | $4,365.50–$4,419.40 | Below the session open of $4,408.20 |
| August 13 gold-futures close | $4,363.60 | Approximately -1.03% from August 12 |
| COMEX silver futures | Around $63.96/oz | Approximately -1.41% |
| Gold/silver ratio | About 68.4 | Silver relatively weaker during the session |
| US Dollar Index | Around 99.86 | Approximately -0.10% |
| US 10-year nominal yield | 4.63% | Down 5 basis points |
| US 10-year real yield | 2.39% | Down 3 basis points |
| SPDR Gold Shares | $398.96 | -1.47% on August 13 |
| VanEck Gold Miners ETF | $88.27 | -2.96% on August 13 |
Gold, silver and dollar quotes: Yahoo Finance—gold futures, silver futures and US Dollar Index. Yield data: US Treasury daily rates.
Market and Macro Context
1. Gold Pulled Back From a Two-Month High but Retained a High Medium-Term Base
Gold climbed to around $4,465 on August 12, its highest level in more than two months. The rebound recovered part of the decline that followed the start of the Iran war and was supported by the Federal Reserve's late-July policy signal and a relatively benign US CPI report. Axios gold-market report
COMEX gold futures fell approximately 1.03% from $4,408.90 on August 12 to $4,363.60 on August 13. They recovered modestly to $4,373.50 during the August 14 Asian session but faded from an intraday high of $4,419.40. The pattern suggested profit-taking after the move above $4,400 and was more consistent with high-level consolidation than an immediate return to a one-way advance.
Over a longer horizon, gold futures had a 52-week range of approximately $3,310.10 to $5,586.20. The current price was about 21.7% below the 52-week high but roughly 31% above the reference level one year earlier, leaving gold well off its peak but still historically expensive. Yahoo Finance—gold futures
2. Inflation Cooled, but Underlying Price Pressure Still Limits the Policy Pivot
The July US Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% month over month and 3.4% year over year. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased 0.2% monthly and 2.5% annually. US Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI release
The July Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged on the month, while annual inflation slowed to 4.7% from 5.5% in June. Lower energy prices helped the headline measure, but PPI excluding food, energy and trade services still rose 0.4% monthly and 4.7% annually, showing that underlying pressure had not disappeared. US Bureau of Labor Statistics PPI release
For gold, softer inflation is supportive when it reduces rate-hike probabilities and bond yields. Sticky underlying prices, however, make it harder for the Federal Reserve to turn rapidly accommodative and can limit valuation expansion in bullion.
3. The Federal Reserve Held Rates Steady, Leaving Gold Highly Sensitive to Real Yields
The Federal Reserve maintained the federal-funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% on July 29. Federal Reserve policy statement
US Treasury data showed the 10-year nominal yield falling to 4.63% on August 13 from 4.68% on August 12. The 10-year real yield declined to 2.39% from 2.42%. US Treasury rates
Real yields are particularly important because gold does not pay interest. Lower real yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding bullion relative to bonds. Conversely, gold can weaken during geopolitical stress if real yields and the dollar rise together.
4. August 14 Retail Sales and Consumer Inflation Expectations Are the Main Events
The US Census Bureau is scheduled to release July retail sales at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. June retail and food-services sales totaled $768.6 billion, up 0.2% month over month and 6.7% year over year. Census Bureau release schedule and June retail-sales data
The preliminary University of Michigan consumer-sentiment survey and one-year and longer-term inflation expectations are due at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time. University of Michigan survey material
Potential gold-market reactions include:
- Retail sales below expectations with stable or falling inflation expectations: Could lower the dollar and real yields and would generally be the most supportive outcome for gold.
- Moderate retail-sales growth: Consistent with a soft landing; gold could consolidate at elevated levels if yields do not rise materially.
- Retail sales materially above expectations: Could raise rate-hike probabilities and dollar yields, pressuring gold.
- Weak consumption but higher inflation expectations: A stagflation-like signal that may support haven and inflation-hedging demand, although the initial reaction could be volatile.
5. Geopolitical Risk Can Affect Gold in Both Directions
War and political conflict traditionally increase safe-haven demand for gold. The 2026 experience has shown, however, that geopolitical stress does not automatically push bullion higher. If conflict first raises oil prices and inflation expectations, markets may price higher interest rates and a stronger dollar, increasing gold's opportunity cost. Axios
Middle East developments should therefore be assessed alongside Brent crude, the dollar and real yields. If risk intensifies while oil remains controlled and yields decline, the haven channel is more directly positive for gold. If oil surges and yields rise, gold can react in the opposite direction.
Gold Supply-and-Demand Fundamentals
Central-Bank Buying: Strong Structural Support
The World Gold Council estimated that central banks and other official institutions bought a net 288.9 tonnes of gold in the second quarter of 2026, up 62% year over year and 411% from a revised first-quarter figure. World Gold Council Gold Demand Trends Q2 2026
Its 2026 central-bank survey found that official institutions accumulated an average of approximately 1,000 tonnes annually over the previous four years, twice the roughly 500-tonne average of the preceding decade. Eighty-nine percent of respondents expected global central-bank gold reserves to increase over the next 12 months, and a record 45% expected their own reserves to rise. World Gold Council Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey
Axios also reported that China purchased nearly 20 tonnes in July, its largest monthly purchase since October 2023. Axios
These figures provide a long-term demand foundation, but survey intentions are not completed purchases. Strategic official-sector demand also does not eliminate gold's short-term sensitivity to the dollar and interest rates.
ETF and Investment Demand: Holdings Declined in the Second Quarter
Global gold ETF holdings declined by approximately 44.8 tonnes in the second quarter, while bar-and-coin investment totaled 307.1 tonnes, down 3% year over year. Total gold demand, including over-the-counter activity, was unchanged annually at 1,269 tonnes. First-half demand reached 2,522 tonnes, up 2%, while its value set a record at $380 billion. World Gold Council
The data showed that gold demand was not equally strong across every channel. Central-bank and OTC activity provided support, but ETF investors remained more responsive to price, interest rates and the dollar. Western funds can reduce holdings when inflation and rate expectations rise even while central banks continue buying.
Jewellery Demand: High Prices Materially Reduced Volumes
Second-quarter global gold-jewellery consumption fell 17% year over year to approximately 278.2 tonnes, its lowest quarterly volume since the pandemic. Spending value nevertheless rose 14% to about $40 billion. World Gold Council
Lower volume but higher spending showed that high prices had not eliminated gold's perceived value, but they had significantly reduced affordability. If bullion remains above $4,300–$4,500 for an extended period, jewellery demand may continue adjusting through lighter products, lower purity or deferred purchases.
Supply: Mine Production Grew Modestly While Recycling Declined
Second-quarter mine production was approximately 965.6 tonnes, up 2% year over year. Recycled supply fell 6% to roughly 326.1 tonnes as lower average prices than in the first quarter reduced the incentive to sell old jewellery. World Gold Council
Limited supply growth means structural tightness cannot disappear quickly, although sustained high prices will gradually encourage mine investment and recycling, typically with a significant lag.
Precious Metals and Related Assets
Gold Futures: A Modest Rebound, but $4,400 Was Not Reclaimed
Gold found initial support near $4,365.50 on August 14 and recovered, but it did not hold above $4,400. A break through $4,420 followed by a retest of the August 12 high near $4,465 would be needed to confirm that upside momentum had resumed.
A decline below $4,350 could expose $4,300. A sustained break of that level would weaken the interpretation that the move is merely a routine pullback from a two-month high.
Silver: Industrial Exposure and Higher Volatility Produced Relative Weakness
COMEX silver futures traded around $63.96, down approximately 1.41%, underperforming gold. The gold/silver ratio was approximately 68.4. Yahoo Finance—silver futures
Silver has both precious-metal and industrial-metal characteristics. Strong economic data can support industrial demand but raise yields; weak data can improve easing expectations but damage the demand outlook. Silver is therefore generally more volatile than gold and should not be treated as a simple duplicate of bullion's direction.
Gold ETFs: August 13 Prices Followed Bullion Lower
SPDR Gold Shares closed at $398.96 on August 13, down about 1.47%. The iShares Gold Trust fell approximately 1.45% to $81.78. Yahoo Finance—GLD and IAU
Gold ETFs primarily reflect bullion prices but are also affected by expenses and tracking differences. If gold stabilizes while ETF prices or flows remain weak, it may indicate that traditional financial investors are still reducing exposure.
Gold Miners: Larger Declines Reflected Operating Leverage
The VanEck Gold Miners ETF fell approximately 2.96% to $88.27 on August 13, roughly twice the decline in the main bullion ETFs. Newmont lost 3.10%, Barrick Mining 1.95%, Agnico Eagle 2.60%, and Wheaton Precious Metals 2.24%.
| Company or Fund | Symbol | August 13 Close | Daily Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| VanEck Gold Miners ETF | GDX | $88.27 | -2.96% |
| Newmont | NEM | $114.19 | -3.10% |
| Barrick Mining | GOLD | $43.81 | -1.95% |
| Agnico Eagle Mines | AEM | $180.36 | -2.60% |
| Wheaton Precious Metals | WPM | $131.86 | -2.24% |
Mining equities are influenced by bullion prices, energy and labor costs, ore grades, capital spending, political risk and equity valuations. Persistent miner underperformance does not automatically predict falling gold, but it can reflect doubt about the durability of high metal prices or concern that rising costs will erode margins.
Instruments to Watch
| Instrument | Symbol | Reason to Watch |
|---|---|---|
| COMEX gold futures | GC | $4,365 support and $4,420–$4,465 resistance |
| COMEX silver futures | SI | Relative weakness, industrial demand and the gold/silver ratio |
| SPDR Gold Shares | GLD | Major gold ETF proxy for traditional investor risk appetite |
| iShares Gold Trust | IAU | Lower-fee bullion exposure and ETF demand trend |
| VanEck Gold Miners ETF | GDX | Operating leverage and sector-breadth indicator |
| Newmont | NEM | Large producer sensitive to bullion prices and costs |
| Barrick Mining | GOLD | Gold and copper exposure, geopolitics and project execution |
| Agnico Eagle Mines | AEM | High-quality mine portfolio and production-cost performance |
| Wheaton Precious Metals | WPM | Precious-metals streaming exposure to both gold and silver |
| US Dollar Index | DXY | Usually inversely related to gold; 100 is a key psychological level |
| US 10-year real yield | — | Measures the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion |
Key Market Drivers
- July US retail sales and consumer inflation expectations
- US 10-year nominal and real Treasury yields
- Whether the US Dollar Index remains below 100
- Repricing of expectations for the Federal Reserve's September decision
- Gold-reserve purchases by China and other central banks
- Whether global gold ETFs reverse the second-quarter decline in holdings
- The interaction among Middle East risk, oil prices and inflation expectations
- Price sensitivity of jewellery, bar and coin demand in India and China
- Energy, labor and capital-spending costs for mining companies
- Liquidity and gap risk during extended weekend trading hours
Short-Term Outlook
| Indicator | Reference Support | Reference Resistance |
|---|---|---|
| COMEX gold futures | $4,365 / $4,350 / $4,300 | $4,420 / $4,465 / $4,500 |
| COMEX silver futures | $63.80 / $62.50 | $64.90 / $66.00 |
| US Dollar Index | 99.80 / 99.50 | 100.00 / 100.50 |
| US 10-year nominal yield | 4.60% / 4.50% | 4.68% / 4.75% |
| US 10-year real yield | 2.35% / 2.30% | 2.42% / 2.50% |
These levels are observation zones based on recent market ranges, round-number areas and publicly available data. They are not price forecasts.
Gold remains at a decision point following a pullback from elevated levels. A weaker dollar, lower real yields, central-bank accumulation and geopolitical risk provide support. ETF reductions, affordability pressure on jewellery demand and relative weakness in mining shares limit the bullish case.
If US retail sales are moderate or weak, consumer inflation expectations remain contained and the 10-year real yield moves toward 2.35%, gold could challenge $4,420–$4,465 again. If firm data push the Dollar Index above 100 and the real yield back over 2.42%, bullion could retest $4,350 or $4,300. A genuinely strong breakout would be more convincing if gold futures, bullion ETFs and mining equities improve together rather than futures prices rising alone.