On Thursday (April 16), the global gold market demonstrated strong resilience above the $4,800 psychological level. Boosted by an unexpected expansion in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and ongoing volatility in Middle Eastern peace efforts, gold continued its steady upward trend this week. While US manufacturing data (Empire State Survey) surprised to the upside, long-term expectations for monetary easing and a resurgence in safe-haven demand provided a solid floor for prices.
Market Overview
Global & Macro Background
The focus of global financial markets today is on the Federal Reserve's liquidity maneuvers. Recent data reveals that the Fed quietly added nearly $20 billion to its balance sheet last week, bringing the total liquidity injection since the policy pivot to $158 billion. Although the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index rose to 11 in April (well above expectations), real interest rates remain at a low of 0.4% and are trending toward negative—a classic signal mirroring the 2008–2011 gold bull market.
Local and International Performance
- Spot Gold: London spot gold rallied 0.82% today, with prices steadily climbing to $4,829.37/oz.
- Gold Futures: COMEX gold contracts traded within the $4,820-$4,835 range as speculative long positions increased ahead of the April 29 Fed meeting.
- Domestic Prices (China): Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) Au 99.99 spot closed at 1,062.15 CNY/g, continuing a modest climb and reflecting the sensitivity of CNY-denominated gold to global volatility.
Industry Highlights
Retail Prices Resume Upward Trend
Driven by spot gold stabilizing above $4,800, retail prices in China saw minor upward adjustments today. Major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang listed gold jewelry prices back within the 1,390-1,410 CNY/g range. Following the correction in late March, consumer "wait-and-see" sentiment has cooled, with steady demand for weddings and seasonal gifts.
Central Banks Preparing for the "Next Wave"
A J.P. Morgan research report today highlighted that global central banks have resumed large-scale gold accumulation following the January price dip. As the "de-dollarization" trend deepens in 2026, analysts forecast gold could test $5,000/oz in Q4, with some scenarios projecting a rise toward $6,000.
Key Data to Watch (For Market Observation Only — Not Investment Advice)
| Indicator/Contract | Code/Type | Key Data | Reason for Observation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spot Gold | XAU/USD | ~$4829/oz | Stabilizing above key technical levels; challenging resistance zones. |
| SGE Gold | Au 99.99 | 1062.15 CNY/g | Domestic premiums remain stable, reflecting safe-haven demand. |
| Chow Tai Fook Gold | Retail Price | 1395 CNY/g | Rapid pass-through of international price gains to the retail sector. |
Market Drivers
- Expansion of Money Supply: The Fed's recent balance sheet expansion has eased liquidity pressures and reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold.
- Geopolitical Uncertainty: Lingering doubts about the longevity of the Middle East ceasefire have kept the risk premium alive.
- Inflation Hedging: Risks of secondary inflation driven by high energy costs continue to boost gold's appeal as a "hard currency."
Outlook
Technically, gold is searching for direction within the $4,800-$4,850 range. Analysts believe that a weekly close above $4,830 would set the next target at $4,950. Investors are closely watching the April 29 Fed meeting, which will determine if gold enters the "second stage" of its sprint toward the $5,000 milestone.