On Monday (November 10), the global gold market witnessed a powerful surge, with both spot and future prices firmly holding above the $4,000 mark and further breaking the $4,100 threshold, marking the largest single-day gain in November. Despite record-high prices, gold remains highly sought after by investors due to geopolitical uncertainties, weak US macroeconomic data, and the ongoing "de-dollarization" trend.
Market Overview
Global & Macro Background
Global risk appetite was mixed today. The latest US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for November came in lower than expected at 50.3, which, combined with soft private employment data, bolstered expectations for a 25 bps Federal Reserve rate cut in December (currently priced at a 66% probability). While US senators are voting on a deal to end the longest government shutdown in history, economic uncertainty continues to drive capital into safe-haven assets.
Local and International Performance
- Spot Gold: London spot gold hit a high of $4,106.01/oz, with a maximum intraday gain of 2.63%.
- Gold Futures: COMEX gold main contracts settled around $4,115/oz.
- Domestic Prices (China): Retail gold prices in major jewelry stores (e.g., Chow Tai Fook) rose accordingly, approaching 1,280 CNY/g; Shanghai Gold Exchange spot gold closed at 918.03 CNY/g.
Industry Highlights
Central Bank Purchases and "De-dollarization"
According to the latest data from the People's Bank of China, gold reserves increased for the 12th consecutive month as of the end of October. The World Gold Council noted that despite record prices, central banks accelerated their gold-buying pace in Q3 2025, up 28% from Q2, providing a solid floor for prices.
Safe-Haven and Inflation Hedge
Driven by geopolitical volatility and expectations of lower US Treasury yields, safe-haven flows into gold ETFs have remained strong. Meanwhile, silver prices also rallied today, briefly surpassing the $50/oz mark, reflecting broad strength across the precious metals sector.
Key Data to Watch (For Market Observation Only — Not Investment Advice)
| Indicator/Contract | Code/Type | Key Data | Reason for Observation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spot Gold | XAU/USD | ~$4100/oz | Breakout above key psychological resistance; largest Nov gain. |
| COMEX Gold | GC | ~$4115/oz | Speculative buying and short covering driving rapid price action. |
| SGE Gold | SHAUPM | 918.03 CNY/g | Resilient domestic demand; CNY-denominated gold strength. |
Market Drivers
- Rate Cut Expectations: Weak economic data reinforced expectations of Fed easing, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.
- De-dollarization Trend: Central banks, particularly in emerging markets, continue to increase gold reserves to optimize asset allocations.
- Technical Breakout: Stability above $4,000 has attracted significant trend-following capital into the market.
Outlook
Analysts expect gold to maintain high-level volatility in the short term. With US CPI inflation and Retail Sales data due later this week, market volatility is likely to rise. While there is a risk of short-term profit-taking, the medium-to-long-term bullish logic for gold remains intact amidst global geopolitical and macroeconomic shifts.