On Wednesday, April 29, the Malaysian Ringgit remained broadly resilient, with USD/MYR trading near the 3.95 handle. Unlike last week's "fading geopolitical premium" narrative, today's key market driver shifted back to Middle East supply risk and rising oil prices. Reuters reported that the U.S. may extend its blockade of Iranian ports, pushing Brent crude to around USD 111.78 per barrel and WTI to around USD 100.50 per barrel, as Strait of Hormuz-related supply risks continued to unsettle global markets.
Market Overview
Global FX markets are trading under a combination of high oil prices and Fed decision risk. The US Dollar Index hovered near 98.65 in Asian trading, while markets widely expect the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% at its April meeting. Focus now shifts to Chair Powell's press conference, US Q1 GDP, and PCE inflation data.
Domestically, the Ringgit continues to draw support from Malaysia's trade fundamentals. In March 2026, Malaysia's total trade rose 9.3% year-on-year to RM272.95 billion, exports increased 8.3% to RM148.75 billion, imports rose 10.4% to RM124.20 billion, and the trade surplus stood at RM24.55 billion, extending Malaysia's surplus streak since May 2020.
Local Market Performance
USD/MYR traded around the 3.947–3.96 area. Over the past week, USD/MYR ranged from a high of around 3.972 to a low of around 3.947 on April 29, indicating that the Ringgit has remained within a relatively firm range despite external volatility.
On reserves, Bank Negara Malaysia's international reserves stood at USD 126.6 billion as of March 31, 2026, sufficient to finance 4.6 months of goods and services imports and equivalent to 0.9 times short-term external debt.
Sector and Key Highlights
USD/MYR
USD/MYR continues to battle around the 3.95 psychological level. A hawkish Fed tone could support the dollar in the near term, but Malaysia's trade surplus, resilient E&E exports, and ample reserves remain key buffers for the Ringgit.
SGD/MYR
Based on USD/MYR near 3.9475 and SGD/USD near 0.7833, SGD/MYR is estimated around 3.09. The Singapore dollar remains supported by Singapore's exchange-rate-based policy framework, while Ringgit stability keeps the pair locked in a 3.09–3.11 consolidation range.
Commodity Linkages
The sharp rise in oil prices has a two-sided impact on the Ringgit. Malaysia may benefit from higher energy-related export revenues, but if oil prices lift global inflation and delay Fed easing, the resulting dollar strength could pressure emerging-market currencies.
Currencies to Watch (For Observation Only)
| Currency Pair | Current Level (Est.) | Reason for Observation |
|---|---|---|
| USD/MYR | Around 3.95 | Fed decision, PCE data, and oil-price shock are the key short-term drivers. |
| SGD/MYR | Around 3.09 | Tug-of-war between Singapore's FX policy support and improving Ringgit fundamentals. |
Market Drivers
- Fed Decision Risk: Markets expect no rate change, but the statement and Powell's tone will guide the dollar.
- Oil Price Surge: Middle East supply risk pushed Brent above the USD 110 area, raising inflation uncertainty.
- Trade Surplus Support: Malaysia's RM24.55 billion March trade surplus reflects resilient external demand and manufacturing exports.
- Adequate Reserve Buffer: BNM's USD 126.6 billion reserves remain a key stabilizer.
- Emerging-Market Risk Appetite: Higher oil could push capital toward the dollar, while a dovish Fed could help the Ringgit recover.
Outlook
Analysts expect USD/MYR to trade in a 3.93–3.98 range in the near term. If the Fed maintains a neutral-to-dovish tone and US PCE comes in softer than expected, the Ringgit could retest the 3.93 and potentially 3.90 zones. However, if oil prices continue to rise and inflation expectations move higher, USD/MYR may challenge the 3.97–3.98 resistance area again.