Data timestamp: Approximately 10:30 a.m. Beijing and Malaysia time on August 7, 2026. Foreign exchange markets trade continuously, and the figures below represent a market snapshot.
Global currency markets traded in narrow ranges ahead of the US July employment report. The Dollar Index remained just below 100, while the euro and sterling were little changed.
USD/JPY remained near 158, indicating that the yen's intervention-driven recovery was losing momentum. Asian currencies were mixed, with the offshore yuan slightly stronger and the Malaysian ringgit easing modestly.
Market Overview
| Currency or Exchange Rate | Current Quote | Daily Change | Daily Range | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | About 99.84 | +0.03% | Around 99.92-100.00 | About 99.82 |
| EUR/USD | 1.1523 | -0.01% | 1.1518-1.1527 | 1.1524 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3453 | -0.04% | 1.3446-1.3460 | 1.3458 |
| USD/JPY | 158.33 | -0.06% | 158.22-158.57 | 158.43 |
| AUD/USD | 0.7027 | -0.06% | 0.7026-0.7036 | 0.7031 |
| USD/CHF | 0.8125 | +0.01% | 0.8118-0.8129 | 0.8124 |
| USD/CNH | 6.7469 | -0.02% | 6.7468-6.7502 | 6.7481 |
| USD/MYR | 4.0920 | +0.12% | 4.0875-4.0955 | 4.0870 |
Market sources: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CNH and USD/MYR.
A rise in USD/JPY, USD/CNH or USD/MYR represents depreciation of the yen, offshore yuan or ringgit against the US dollar.
Global Macro Background
1. US Employment Report Is the Main Near-Term Dollar Catalyst
The July US employment report is scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET on August 7, or 8:30 p.m. Beijing and Malaysia time. The report had not been released at the data cut-off.
A Reuters survey indicated expectations for:
- Approximately 80,000 new nonfarm jobs
- An unemployment rate of 4.2%
- Monthly wage growth of approximately 0.3%
- Previous nonfarm payroll growth of 57,000
Stronger employment and wage growth could lift the dollar and Treasury yields. Weaker figures could reduce expectations for a Federal Reserve rate increase. Reuters FX report; US Bureau of Labor Statistics
2. Federal Reserve Shows Internal Division
The Federal Reserve maintained its target range at 3.50% to 3.75% on July 29, but three voting members preferred a 25-basis-point increase.
Energy prices and Middle East supply shocks have kept inflation above the Fed's 2% objective, making employment and inflation data particularly important ahead of September. Federal Reserve statement
3. Central-Bank Policies Remain Divergent
| Central Bank | Main Policy Rate | Latest Position |
|---|---|---|
| Federal Reserve | 3.50%-3.75% | Held; three members supported a hike |
| Bank of England | 3.75% | Held on July 30 |
| European Central Bank | 2.25% deposit rate | Held on July 23 |
| Reserve Bank of Australia | About 4.35% | Policy remains restrictive |
| Bank of Japan | 1.00% | Held on July 31 |
| Bank Negara Malaysia | 2.75% | OPR unchanged |
The ECB and Bank of England are monitoring inflation risks associated with higher Middle East energy prices. ECB; Bank of England; Bank Negara Malaysia
Major Currency Performance
Dollar Index: 100 Is the Key Dividing Line
The Dollar Index traded near 99.84. High US interest rates and safe-haven demand provided support, but large speculative dollar-long positions could create the conditions for a sharp reversal if US data disappoints.
- Support: 99.50 and 99.00
- Resistance: 100.00 and 101.00
Euro: Consolidating Above 1.15
EUR/USD traded near 1.1523. The interest-rate differential with the United States remains a headwind, but the euro has so far maintained the 1.15 psychological level.
- Support: 1.1500 and 1.1450
- Resistance: 1.1600 and 1.1700
Sterling: Waiting for a Break Above 1.35
GBP/USD traded near 1.3453. The Bank of England's 3.75% policy rate supports sterling, while energy costs and the UK growth outlook limit the upside.
- Support: 1.3400 and 1.3300
- Resistance: 1.3500 and 1.3600
Yen: Intervention Risk Limits USD/JPY Upside
USD/JPY traded near 158.33. The Bank of Japan has raised its policy rate to 1%, but the US-Japan rate differential remains wide.
Japanese authorities sold approximately $39.6 billion in a record single-day yen-buying intervention on April 30. Total intervention between April 28 and May 27 amounted to approximately 11.7 trillion yen.
- Support: 157.00 and 155.00
- Resistance: 160.00 and 163.00
- Main risk: renewed intervention by Japan's Ministry of Finance
Australian Dollar: Commodity Prices Provide Support
AUD/USD traded near 0.7027. Australian interest rates, metal prices and Asian risk appetite provide support, while Chinese economic data and US-dollar movements remain the main external variables.
- Support: 0.7000 and 0.6950
- Resistance: 0.7050 and 0.7100
Offshore Yuan: Near the Strong End of Its Annual Range
USD/CNH traded near 6.7469, close to its 52-week low of 6.7418. The pair has declined approximately 6% over one year, indicating meaningful yuan appreciation.
- Support: 6.7400 and 6.7000
- Resistance: 6.7800 and 6.8200
Malaysian Ringgit: Slightly Weaker but Stable Over the Medium Term
USD/MYR traded near 4.0920, up approximately 0.12% on the day. However, the pair remained around 3.4% lower than a year earlier, indicating an improvement in the ringgit's medium-term performance.
- Support: 4.0800 and 4.0500
- Resistance: 4.1000 and 4.1500
Currency Pairs to Watch
| Currency Pair | Reason |
|---|---|
| EUR/USD | Fed-ECB policy divergence |
| GBP/USD | The 1.35 level and UK inflation |
| USD/JPY | Rate differential and intervention risk |
| AUD/USD | Chinese demand, metals and risk appetite |
| USD/CNH | Chinese policy and economic data |
| USD/MYR | Oil prices, foreign flows and Malaysian growth |
| USD/CHF | Safe-haven flows during geopolitical uncertainty |
Market Drivers
- US nonfarm payrolls, unemployment and wage growth
- The probability of a September Federal Reserve rate increase
- Strait of Hormuz developments and US-Iran negotiations
- Possible renewed Japanese intervention
- Interest-rate differentials between major economies
- Chinese economic data and the yuan fixing
- Oil prices and foreign flows affecting Asian currencies
Outlook
The Dollar Index could remain between 99.50 and 100.00 before the US employment report.
A stronger report could push the index above 100, send USD/JPY back toward 160 and pressure EUR/USD toward 1.1450. A substantially weaker report could push the Dollar Index below 99.50, allowing EUR/USD to test 1.16 and supporting Asian currencies.
For the ringgit, the main short-term question is whether USD/MYR remains below 4.10. A weaker dollar, firm oil prices and improving Asian capital flows could push the pair toward 4.05-4.08. A break above 100 in the Dollar Index could instead lift USD/MYR toward 4.15.
For market observation only; not investment advice.